W here is the tech industry going and how can we stay one step ahead? This is the question that most of us are asking ourselves on a daily basis in one form or another. What’s the latest CSS3 technique? What HTML5 elements can I harness? What web application can I build that will be just like Twitter… but better? What is the next technological revolution? What is the next big thing? I can’t answer most of those, but I can tell you that the mobile web is not the answer. Let’s go back in time for a moment:
1999
For most people, this is where the mobile web starts. Mobile operators begin to hype WAP as the next big thing as the first handsets become available. We’re all amazed that something which can fit into the palm of our hand can look up CINEMA SHOWING TIMES. Zomg, bitches, the future is here!
Personally, I enjoy rocking out with my Nokia 7110 (as seen in the Matrix) did you know that flip-down plastic bits and scroll wheels are the next big thing for mobile phones? It also has infra-fucking-red. Hell yeah.
2000
According to the WAP Forum (basically the W3C of WAP) in less than two years, all new digital handheld devices will be WAP-enabled. Business technology advisor Gartner predicts that the mobile phone will become the most widely used Internet access device in the world, with the number of installed mobile phones topping 1 billion after 2003.
The president of Ericsson (yeah, remember them?) says that “Mobile Net will soon outgrow fixed Net”. So, the mobile web is almost here.
2001
With people becoming quickly dissatisfied with WAP and its painfully slow performance, GPRS emerges as the next big thing. GPRS is good because it provides a constant data-connection, a bit like DSL vs Dial-Up. MMS, 2G and 3G services begin to emerge, built upon this technology.
The BBC proclaim a 3G mobile revolution with this new technology. The mobile web is almost here.
2002
Carriers continue to battle over 3G licensing to make sure the they have a firm hold on the mobile web, in the mean time Palm (rememeber them?) start ramping up production on a mobile web browser. Because the future of the mobile web lies in PDAs and Palm are leading the charge. The mobile web is almost here, we just need some better PDAs and stuff.
2003
This is a big year, because Opera actually kickstart the mobile revolution! Who knew? What about those revolutions before? lol! They were just silly people with waps and geeprs, the heart of the mobile web lies in the browser and our new browser is available to all Nokia 7650/3650 users. POW. Eat that. “We now have truly started the era of the mobile Internet.”
Can I get a what-what? Smartphones for Christmas everybody! You better get ready, cause the mobile web is almost here!
2004
Facebook is here, holy wow! Someone should make a movie about this. Elsewhere on the interwebs, the mobile internet has its best ever month and apparently this trend looks likely to continue.
CNN say “Net-ready handheld devices — Palm Pilots, cell phones, and the like — are growing at a faster rate than new PCs. Right now there are 182 million mobile Internet users worldwide, according to IDC. By the end of 2007, that number is expected to reach 576 million.”
(hang on, didn’t they say a billion by 2003 before? and now it’s just half a billion by 2007?)
2005 – 2006
Snoozefest. Mobile data gets faster, handsets improve, blah blah. It’s almost here. Be patient.
2007
Holy. Eff. Have you seen this? The iPhone is off-the-heezy! For the first time the internet actually looks good on a phone. Epic wow-factor, everyone is going to want one of these. Everyone in the whole world. Ever.
According to BusinessWeek, the mobile web is now taking off. Ignore all that stuff before, we were just kidding about that. It’s the real deal this time, cause the iPhone is just getting up to speed – so basically, the mobile web is almost here. Watch this space.
2008
Well, as predicted: the mobile internet revolution is here. The important thing to note is that it’s not quite here yet, it’s here in the sense that it’s just arrived but it needs to take off its scarf, sit down, have a cup of tea and watch some Hollyoaks. You know, then it’ll start actually doing some shit. The mobile web is almost here, just give it a second, ok?
Now let’s make some more crazy-ass 3-5 year predictions, those have never failed so far!
2009
BusinessWeek are at it again, the mobile web will overtake desktops as the most popular way of accessing the internet. I know that same claim was made by someone 10 years ago who I can’t quite remember – the son of Eric or something, but seriously this time, I’m not messing about.
2010
Right, I know that if I was a boy crying wolf you probably would’ve kicked me in the nuts by now and killed all my sheep with your own bare hands before selling their bodies on to a tradesman of questionable moral substance – but just listen to me for a moment: the mobile web revolution has NOW arrived. Srsly.
Ireland are a bit late to the party and reckon it’s all just starting up now, thanks to the iPad.
But wait – don’t get ahead of yourself. Apparently, the next billion people coming online will be on mobile devices. So actually the mobile thing is pretty cool right now, but it’s going to get started properly in just a minute.
I Have A Question
I have been watching bloggers, the media, web designers, people on twitter, and pretty much every speaker at every web design conference since the release of the iPhone talk about “the mobile web” and how important it is. When is it going to fucking get here? The same ridiculous predictions have been made for the last 10 years, and while we’ve come a long way… mobile web usage is most certainly not exceeding the desktop.
Let’s Make a Few Distinctions
The people in the web design industry who hype the mobile web the most are the same people talking about “Responsive Web Design” which, for the un-educated, means “making pretty alternative stylesheets for iPhone and iPad”. These are also the same people who cite developing countries as the primary reason that the mobile web is set for continued growth, exceeding that of the desktop.
At what point did an iPhone with a contract with a value of over £1,200 become a great device for developing countries?
Wired recently wrote about how the web is dead, but the internet is stronger than ever. I think that same applies to mobile.
Will mobile phone usage be replaced by mobile internet? Almost definitely. Voice calls will go to VOIP, SMS will go to email/instant messaging, MMS will go to email. These technologies are already accessible to more people than ever before, and I’m sure that trend will continue. But, replacing desktops? Being used for things which you would normally use a computer for? I don’t think so.
What are the largest blocks of time that anyone spends on a computer? Sitting at a desk, doing some form of work. This isn’t what the mobile web was made for, and it never will be – there is no mobile device which is “better” at a work task than a desktop device (the clue is in the name). The mobile web is a convenience, not a necessity.
On the other hand, I send pretty much no text messages any more, I rarely make any personal phone calls which aren’t VOIP and I definitely don’t send any multimedia messages. All that stuff has been almost completely replaced by mobile internet.
Desktop is to Mobile as Car is to Motorcycle
For the average user, owning a desktop and mobile device is a lot like owning a car and a motorcycle. The car is your main vehicle, it gets you to where you want to go quickly and easily. The car holds everything you want it to, can be used in any weather conditions, and is suitable for use for a journey of any distance. The motorcycle is smaller, more flexible in day-to-day usage, and undoubtedly sexier. On the other hand, it’s limited in its capacity, it’s generally most useful in specific situations (eg. a sunny day), and it’s really not very comfortable to ride for long distances.
The car is the main device, the motorcycle is secondary.
If you visit Cambodia or Vietnam, you’ll see motorcycles. Lots of them. In fact you’ll see so many that you’ll quickly realise how in this part of the world, motorcycles far outnumber cars. They’re cheaper to buy, cheaper run, easier to store, and more simple to manufacture – the secondary device for the first world becomes the primary device for the developing world. Does this mean that you need to start offering dedicated motorcycle parking for your shop in London? Erm…. don’t think so.
Increased mobile usage in developing countries pushes global mobile web statistics higher and higher each year, but using this data to justify a dedicated mobile website makes about as much sense as offering parking for Vietnamese motorcycles in central London. For the overwhelming majority of you, they aren’t your audience and they never will be.
So now you’re thinking “Ok, but mobile usage data for my country is way up! Like 110% up! Suck on that!” – The question here is what type of usage is up? Millions of new people screwing around on Facebook and Twitter on their mobile phones is meaningless, there are also millions of new people screwing around on Facebook and Twitter on their computers. Unless you’re building a site which is relevant to mobile users then you shouldn’t assume that just because overall mobile usage is up, it’s important to your site.
In Closing
For the time being, arguments about the importance of the mobile web are mostly pointless. Like arguments over whether or not to support IE6, the only thing that really matters is your own usage data. It means nothing that “global mobile usage went up 148% last year” and it means nothing that “IE6 still retains a 22% global browser market share”. Those statistics are vastly skewed by data which is of absolutely no relevance to the question of whether or not YOU should be concerned about them.
This site receives less than 1% of visits from IE6 and mobile devices put together. I couldn’t care less whether the mobile revolution has arrived or not. For the time being, it doesn’t affect any decisions which I need to make here.
Overall, the mobile internet revolution is far more relevant to companies who do what we’ve always done with mobile technology: communicate. The revolution is for social networks and telecommunications… the entire web isn’t about to turn on it’s head and it’s about time that we stopped waiting for that to happen.
The mobile web is already here, it’s been here for a while now. It just isn’t exactly what we expected.
Footnote: A bit of a tangent, but if you have 3 seconds spare then I would love it if you’d check out my entry for Nikon’s worldwide photography competition and consider voting for me by clicking the “Like” button.
Main post image by johanl
Superb post. I almost totally agree.
I do see more mobile usage and a need to style for mobile devices on a case by case basis. Not everyone is going to be happy to read a site on an iPhone, comment or buy without some mobile-based usability or styling tweaks.
Wired’s debate over apps vs Internet was interesting but flawed. The browser is the web and we’re not getting rid of the web just yet.
This comment was submitted on an IPwn…
I agree so much it hurts. And this quote just made my day:
“Right, I know that if I was a boy crying wolf you probably would’ve kicked me in the nuts by now and killed all my sheep with your own bare hands before selling their bodies on to a tradesman of questionable moral substance”
Got to agree John, the mobile net is nothing more than being to look up things quickly and keep in touch with friends and family etc via social networking.
Any real bit of internet browsing is still done on a desktop. I mean who is going to buy clothes off an online shop, when they can only see it on a small screen?
Nice post John,
You quite deftly saw through 12 years of hype for what it really it was.
Almost a truism but I’ll settle for “very insightful”.
nicely done.
I’d have gone with “Desktop is to Mobile as Bread is to Crumpets” – but whatever. Your argument still stands, and for that I salute you.
Agree.
I myself live in a dev country, and hardly see anyone browsing with their phones, even when sitting stuck on a bus in jam for hours. Telecom companies are advertising with free facebook on your phone to get users to use the mobile web, but after facebook there are almost no mobile sites at all that interest people.
It’s a cheap entry to the world of the internet, but the content is not there and people are not willing to pay for something they don’t need (checking the news while in jam is not something you need to do, it’s something you do because you are bored)
I disagree with you there, it’s almost here, seriously, it’s about to explode! ;)
“The mobile web is already here, it’s been here for a while now. It just isn’t exactly what we expected.”
I couldn’t have said it better myself. ;)
We were expecting the ‘mobile web’ to change everything, when in fact it’s grown up to be another way to consume ‘the real web’. Now we can see that it’s easier to see not only where to make the extra effort but also if it’s worth it for YOU, the same way we do for all these other browsers. Supporting the mobile web does not have to mean you have an iPhone app, or you have a completely different style sheet for small screen devices, some times it’s just enough to check that your site works to an acceptable level on your iPhone/Blackberry/Android Phone.
“2007
Holy. Eff. Have you seen this? The iPhone is off-the-heezy! For the first time the internet actually looks good on a phone”
I disagree with this statement, I ran Opera Mobile on my HTC TYTNII and it was identical if not better than the offering the iPhone could muster upon release. was almost identical to desktop browsing as my data usage history will show…
rest of the article is spot on tho…
That part was mostly tongue-in-cheek ;)
Great post John.
I like “The mobile web is already here, it’s been here for a while now. It just isn’t exactly what we expected.”
I look at “the mobile revolution” and “the next big thing” from two view points, the first being a “normal non-techie person” and the second a “techie person”. If you asked your nan, what do you think of the internet and mobile internet, she would probably say its a revolution to the technological advancement of how we can gain information (or something similar probably involving the word magic). Like wise if you asked somebody in their teens or twenties a similar comment would be made as we are at a point of instant convenience, similar to how fast-food changed everything, so from that point of view it is a revolution. Now asking me, you and the other people who commented above, which I assume are all in the Internet industry, no its not a revolution, its evolution and going back to the quote I referenced I think it is what we expected, just like the Internet was and is, it becomes and is shaped by what ever we as consumers want it to currently be and do.
Have you tried typing anything longer than 140 characters on a mobile phone/ smartphone/ iPhone/ penis extension? Bloody horrible, isn’t it?
I love the car/ bike analogy. No-one really wants to go for a long-but-essential drive down the motorway on a bike. I’d also use the comparison of a proper meal to bags and bags and Haribo. Sure, the latter are a great quick fix when you’re peckish, but rely on them entirely and you’re going to be in a whole world of pain.
Intriguing post. I must say I mostly agree with everything said here. I also want to throw in my 2 cents. I feel that it isn’t what we expected also because everything mobile is delayed and broken into various models and releases. Mobile web needs tech, needs gadgets to work. It’s taken the iPhone how many models? It’s going to continue to expand but not without trial and error which means two things: 1. Mobile web isn’t going to all of a sudden change the world (like you said…like everyone thought) and 2. Mobile web is not going to really progress any further any quicker when technologies are simply copying themselves (smart phones).
You’re defining “mobile” narrowly enough to make your point. The key aspect of mobile is that it’s untethered vs. a desktop that is (think cordless phone vs. corded, if you remember those). If you talk of devices with minuscule screens and puny processors/memory, sure they’re no match to desktops. But what about laptops? iPads? And the smartphones with HD res screens, super processors, and ultra high bandwidth networks coming out now for the first time?
Let’s make this one simple: any device without a full-size keyboard
Great post. I could not agree more.
Personally I am getting quite tired of people proclaiming the mobile revolution the Holy Grail. Obviously these new communication platforms hold some interesting business possibilities, but that does not mean the “desktop evolution” has stopped. Of course everything depends on your business objectives, but I highly doubt that mobile devices will replace the desktop computer any time soon now.
“I’m walking into WalMart.”
“I’m looking at shirts.”
“Now I’m in Sporting Goods.”
“I just sneezed.”
(Posts picture of snot to Facebook)
“I’m leaving WalMart.”
The Mobile Web will be 3 billion Idiocratites spending half their paychecks to “update” each other.
Almost of its own volition, the pistol rises to my temple.
The one thing your brief mention of the recent Wired article doesn’t really take into account is that that article was mostly about the difference in how we use mobile devices and for what kinds of services than desktops/laptops/whatever. The fact that your site, or any web site only gets a fraction of hits from mobile devices is irrelevant. That’s not what we do on mobile devices. What we do on mobile devices is use an app for Twitter, an app for Facebook, an app for YouHuluNetflixTube — in short, we’re not browsing to sites. We’re not using it for work. We use it to augment things we’re doing or stay connected or whatever. Which is the whole point of the “the web is dead” statement. Mobile devices aren’t about the web — as defined as being a network of interconnected destinations. Mobile devices are about using the internet to connect to a particular service, and often choosing to pay for said service for the sake of convenience where the web-version of the same service might be free (like using a Twitter app for iPhone versus using the Twitter web page on your desktop). No one is going to say “Look, I don’t need a website because I have an iPhone app” but traffic to said site might matter less if you’re getting 1000 sales a day for your app. The site itself might be irrelevant except as an accessory to the service you’ve built exclusively for mobile devices.
I think you slightly missed my point – but an extremely interesting and insightful comment nevertheless :)
pshaw — I got your point, I was just commenting on another point within your point… ;)
Point taken! :)
fair comment about mobile apps. they will have their place. for brands who have niche audiences. but the web is ubiquitous and agnostic. it’s not just for those people who think their apple device is the only device on the planet. in the third world over here, our audiences can’t all afford ipads. if we build stuff, it needs to cater to a wider range of devices. not every company can afford to develop and deploy platform-specific apps to four different platforms… and even then, their audiences aren’t necessarily on those platforms? they can, however, develop for web and customise it for the mobile browsing experience. mobile apps and platforms are too fragmented at the moment imho. but apparently that’s all going to change next year…
The mobile web will be here when we stop calling it “the mobile web” and call it “the web”.
I.e. when we stop talking about it as though it’s something special.
Thank you, thank you, thank you! I have saved and will use this post in my web dev arsenal.
Great article, it’s nice to see someone put the ‘mobile web buzz’ in perspective. Creating a mobile version of a website is a time consuming task, so you’d best make sure that a worthwhile amount of users are going to benefit from it.
I’m not sure if it’s just me or does every post I come from always contradicting the entire industry? Bitter?
So what are you trying to say? Are you trying to say that everything will be the same as it is now in the next 5 years?
Hi John, I’m sorry you didn’t like the article – I was simply trying to provide a little perspective.
That’s not the point. It makes sense but the way it’s written sounds so bitter. You define problems but you don’t point out a clear solution or perspective to prove your claims. So if mobile web isn’t the future since it’s already here as you say, then what really is the future???
I don’t see this as an article. It’s purely a rant.
We are a small community, John. We don’t need to be too negative towards each other. If you disagree on how things are or what another designer says, I’m sure you can find better ways to say it. I know you’re just voicing out your thoughts, but I think my thoughts now just stems from the old comments and posts I’ve read from you.
John, there’s only one of us who sounds bitter here – and I’m afraid it isn’t me ;)
30,000 people have viewed this post in the last few days, and you’re the only person who has come out so vehemently against it. To be totally honest, I don’t believe you actually read the article. Either way, your words would carry a lot more weight with me if you weren’t hiding behind a yahoo email address and a distinct lack of any url.
For the most part I do agree with you and I quite enjoy your writing style :)
However, I think there is still a lot to be done with the mobile web. Your article does bring light to the fact that this is not so much a revolution as it is an evolution but there will be a point where our phones are capable of providing us with a fantastic browsing experience as a standard feature. To me the problem is more in content. Things like twitter and facebook are popular on mobile platforms because they are just extensions of what a phone always has been, a social tool.
People expect things to happen so fast these days (like predicting 1 billion cell users by 2003) but these things take more time than we think still. Much like we didn’t go to bed riding a horse one day and wake up with a Model-T in the driveway the next the mobile web was never destined to be an overnight sensation. I suppose we will continue to develop content and applications that take advantage of mobile browsing until one day we can look back and realize that we actually do use a mobile web but the change never took place in any particular month or year.
“The mobile web is a convenience, not a necessity.”
Great! And I think that people using mobile web are increasingly aware of it.
This reflects the very essence of the mobile web. As web developers, we must be concerned about bringing relevant content to these devices, not ALL the content.
Well said :)
is reading your blog on the train convenient?
mobile context is the rub – how do we ever anticipate where and when a mobile user will have a relevant need to access the web?
Calling Mobile “convenient” is very much in context to how we use desktop, which is quite frankly looking backwards.
I’m watching teens in a pizza shop – they have quick messaging phones for SMS and iPod Touch for Web (wifi) and Games. They cannot afford the iPhone, but they find a work around, which is not necessarily “convenient”.
Regarding the predictions – let them go, they will hound you to the end of days.
Minor correction: the 8110 was featured in the Matrix and didn’t do WAP. Friends I knew who had that model didn’t have the spring loaded keypad cover. The 7110 was released around the same time, and featured the spring.
Ha – good call!